BTCUSD is a good example of why I prefer scenario planning over prediction. The current discussion for me is not whether Bitcoin must move in one direction, but whether price can respect the structure that is already visible on the chart.
The main point around Failed breakdown is that a fast reclaim after a breakdown can trap late sellers. That sounds simple, but it changes the trade plan. Instead of reacting to every candle, I would first mark the level that separates continuation from failure.
For execution, I would the reclaim matters more than the wick itself. If price confirms the level with cleaner volume and controlled pullbacks, the setup becomes more interesting. If price moves too far without giving a clear invalidation point, I would rather leave it alone.
This is also a risk-management topic. A trade can be directionally right and still be poorly executed if the stop is too tight, the size is too large, or the entry is taken after the move has already happened.
The main point around Failed breakdown is that a fast reclaim after a breakdown can trap late sellers. That sounds simple, but it changes the trade plan. Instead of reacting to every candle, I would first mark the level that separates continuation from failure.
For execution, I would the reclaim matters more than the wick itself. If price confirms the level with cleaner volume and controlled pullbacks, the setup becomes more interesting. If price moves too far without giving a clear invalidation point, I would rather leave it alone.
This is also a risk-management topic. A trade can be directionally right and still be poorly executed if the stop is too tight, the size is too large, or the entry is taken after the move has already happened.
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