EURUSD is a good example of why I prefer scenario planning over prediction. The current discussion for me is not whether EURUSD must move in one direction, but whether price can respect the structure that is already visible on the chart.
The main point around News reaction is that headline candles can be noisy until the second reaction appears. That sounds simple, but it changes the trade plan. Instead of reacting to every candle, I would first mark the level that separates continuation from failure.
For execution, I would wait for the market to hold or reject the first move. If price confirms the level with cleaner volume and controlled pullbacks, the setup becomes more interesting. If price moves too far without giving a clear invalidation point, I would rather leave it alone.
This is also a risk-management topic. A trade can be directionally right and still be poorly executed if the stop is too tight, the size is too large, or the entry is taken after the move has already happened.
The main point around News reaction is that headline candles can be noisy until the second reaction appears. That sounds simple, but it changes the trade plan. Instead of reacting to every candle, I would first mark the level that separates continuation from failure.
For execution, I would wait for the market to hold or reject the first move. If price confirms the level with cleaner volume and controlled pullbacks, the setup becomes more interesting. If price moves too far without giving a clear invalidation point, I would rather leave it alone.
This is also a risk-management topic. A trade can be directionally right and still be poorly executed if the stop is too tight, the size is too large, or the entry is taken after the move has already happened.
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